[Domestic excavator parts manufacturers] 2018 is nearing the end. Since this year, various types of construction machinery represented by excavators have maintained a relatively rapid increase. It is now a high probability that excavators will reach 200,000 units this year. thing. Looking forward to the next year, due to uncertainties in the domestic economy and Sino-US trade conflicts, occupations are more worried about the follow-up trend of excavators and other types. We will combine the annual meeting of excavators, bauma exhibition and professional developments on the construction machinery industry in 19 years. The trend of major categories (excavators, cranes and concrete machinery) is guessed and analyzed.

Excavators continue to increase positively, with cranes increasing by 10% and concrete machinery by 20%.

According to the communication status of the excavator annual meeting and the bauma exhibition, the domestic excavator parts manufacturers judged the excavator in 2019 at -10%-10% (Kawasaki and Komatsu believe that the growth rate of the shopping mall is plus or minus 10 %, Liugong estimates that it will remain flat for the whole year, Carter believes that -15%-10%); and based on our two sets of excavator models, we believe that the median growth rate of excavators next year is expected to reach 10%. On the other hand, we believe that in the first quarter of 2019 (at least from January to February), we will continue to increase by more than 10% (the base number in January and February of the previous year was low and the production schedule of cylinder faucets increased). Cranes tend to be used in the later stages of the project. At the same time, due to environmental protection and other factors, the production capacity of XCMG and other leading companies is bound to be restricted. Domestic excavator parts manufacturers believe that with the rationalization of the supply chain/own production capacity, the overall sales growth rate of cranes in 2019 is expected to reach 5-10%; in terms of concrete machinery, because the stock of concrete machinery is huge and replacement is just beginning, it is estimated that next year Will continue to maintain a high growth rate.

The price of excavators remains stable, the price of cranes rises steadily, and the price of concrete pump trucks may fall steadily.

In terms of excavators, due to the large sales volume of excavators this year and the relatively stable structure, domestic excavator parts manufacturers believe that the price of excavators will remain at the current level (intelligent products promoted by CAT will increase the average price, but the acceptance is not very good now Good); For cranes, because of the high-efficiency products promoted by XCMG and other leading companies, we estimate that the price of cranes will rise steadily; for concrete, the increase in two-axle pump trucks for rural and small projects is better. It is estimated that the overall price of concrete machinery will be affected and there will be a certain decline.

The Central Economic Conference sets the tone for 2019, and infrastructure is expected to continue to rebound. The Central Economic Work Conference that closed on the 21st conveyed the new trend of my country's future development: adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability. Continue to increase infrastructure efforts and diversify infrastructure content (including new infrastructure such as 5G commercial construction and traditional livelihood construction such as urban rail transit and logistics) is one of the key tasks for the next year. Domestic excavator parts manufacturers estimate that the construction and planning of rail transit, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Xiongan have been successively approved/promulgated in the near future. Economic meetings and recent planning are expected to help infrastructure rebound and promote the steady increase of construction machinery occupations.

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